The average is one perspective
Two options may have similar expected outcomes and very different downside exposure. A decision-maker with a budget constraint or service obligation may care more about a threshold-crossing probability than a small improvement in the mean.
Dependencies matter
Monte Carlo simulation does not make assumptions disappear. Independent input draws can understate or overstate risk when the drivers move together. Document dependencies and test the conclusion against plausible alternative structures.
Separate types of uncertainty
Natural variation in outcomes differs from uncertainty about the inputs or model. Increasing simulation draws improves numerical stability but does not fix poor input estimates or omitted mechanisms.
Make the decision rule visible
Report the objective, constraints, downside measure, and conditions that change the ranking. A useful model explains when an option is preferable and what new evidence would prompt a different choice.
What evidence would change the preferred option?
Explore the Quantara Decision Stack™